Bills vs Dolphins | September 18 | Highmark Stadium (Buffalo, NY)

It’s an AFC East showdown in Orchard Park as the Bills welcome the Dolphins on Thursday night. I’ve dug into the numbers, matchups, and market movement to put together my favorite props for tonight’s game. Let’s break it down 👇

Coleman’s Week 1 box score against Baltimore looks shiny, but nearly all his production came after the Ravens were up multiple scores late in the 2nd Half and had already shifted into a soft zone. Outside of that stretch, his usage was minimal. Last week he posted just 26 yards against the Jets’ secondary, which feels closer to his true role in this offense. This number looks inflated.

Cook has wasted no time picking up where he left off last season. With Josh Allen nursing a minor knock and running less, Cook’s workload has been steady and efficient. Miami’s defense struggles to stay on the field due to third-down issues, which should give Buffalo extra possessions and more rushing volume. If the Bills play with a lead, Cook could close the game out on the ground and cruise past this total.

Achane’s explosiveness is undeniable, but the context isn’t favorable here. He’s averaged under 50 rushing yards per game over his last handful of road appearances, and if Miami trails early, the backfield rotation could lean away from steady rushing attempts. Unless he breaks off a long one, it’s hard to see him clearing this mark.

The Dolphins’ defense has been a revolving door, giving up points on nearly every possession through the first two weeks. Palmer is averaging 54 yards per game on 12 total targets and has locked down the WR3 spot in Buffalo’s offense. With his downfield ability, this line is low enough that a single chunk play could get him there.

Waddle popped up on the injury report with a shoulder issue, and his status is worth monitoring closely. Even if active, he hasn’t been consistent to start the year and could see limited usage if Miami falls behind. At plus money, fading his yardage feels like the sharper side.

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