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🦃 Thanksgiving Showdown at Jerry World
Chiefs vs. Cowboys | November 27, 2025 — Week 13
The Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) travel to Dallas for a nationally televised Thanksgiving clash at AT&T Stadium — and with both teams coming off dramatic, emotional wins, this is setting up to be one of the best holiday matchups in years.
The Cowboys stormed back from a 21–0 deficit to beat the Eagles last week, while the Chiefs pulled off their own overtime win against a surging Colts team. Now, two playoff hopefuls collide in a game that could drastically reshape the AFC and NFC playoff pictures.
FIVE THINGS TO WATCH
1. Patrick Mahomes’ First Career Game in Dallas
Somehow, after eight seasons in the league, this will be Patrick Mahomes’ first-ever NFL game in Dallas, just three hours from where he grew up.
He enters the matchup playing some of his best ball of the season — even without throwing a touchdown last week:
352 passing yards vs Indianapolis
Top-10 in passer rating
Multiple TD passes in 4 of his last 6 games
250+ passing yards in six straight
Dallas’ defense, revamped by midseason trades for Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson, has been far better the last two weeks… but nobody tests improvements quite like Mahomes.
Expect a motivated QB1 under the Thanksgiving spotlight.
2. Dallas’ New-Look Defense vs Kansas City’s Revamped Passing Attack
Two weeks ago, the Cowboys ranked 29th in EPA/play allowed.
Since plugging Quinnen Williams + Logan Wilson into the lineup?
Top-10 defense in EPA/play over the last two games (-0.094).
But this version of the Chiefs’ offense is nothing like K.C.’s early-season unit:
Rashee Rice fully back (4 TDs in 5 games)
Kelce heating up (43+ yards in 7 straight)
Xavier Worthy settled into a defined role
Hollywood Brown + Thornton adding chunk-play juice
And here’s the matchup that should have Dallas sweating:
Cowboys play zone 78.9% of the time — sixth-most in the NFL.
Mahomes is #1 in EPA/dropback and #1 in DVOA vs zone.
Rashee Rice is #2 in the NFL in yards per route vs zone (3.85).
This is a perfect schematic matchup for Kansas City.
3. Can Kansas City Build on Last Week’s Defensive Statement?
The Chiefs defense didn’t just play well last week — they won the game.
Held Jonathan Taylor to 58 yards (NFL leader in yards & TDs)
Forced multiple 3-and-outs when absolutely needed
Clamped down late to get Mahomes the ball back
Now comes a totally different challenge:
✔ CeeDee Lamb dominating from the slot
✔ George Pickens playing like a top-10 X receiver
✔ A healthy Dak Prescott playing the best ball of his career
The Chiefs must limit the Cowboys’ vertical shots — Dallas thrives on tight-window throws, and Pickens is the league’s premier contested-catch weapon.
4. Kansas City’s Run Game Must Help Mahomes
Isiah Pacheco should be returning this week, but even without him last week the Chiefs finally found a spark:
Kareem Hunt: 100+ rushing yards vs the No. 5 run defense.
That performance mattered for two reasons:
It forced Indy to respect the run again.
It kept Mahomes out of constant long-yardage situations.
Dallas’ weakness had been run defense — until the deadline additions. Now they’re playing like a league-average unit instead of a liability.
Still, with the Cowboys’ pass rush likely selling out to stop Mahomes, KC must keep them honest on the ground to prevent Quinnen Williams & Co. from teeing off.
5. Which Team Handles the Short Week Better?
Both teams played emotionally draining, physically taxing games on Sunday.
Both teams desperately need this win for playoff positioning.
Both teams have great coaches with extra motivation on a holiday stage.
So what’s the difference?
Andy Reid on short rest is historically elite.
And Mahomes in standalone games is borderline unfair. (Especially a DOME)
Meanwhile, the Cowboys have won three straight Thanksgiving games, all by double-digits — and haven’t lost to the Chiefs in Dallas since the 1970s.
This is a high-leverage, heavyweight matchup where one opening-drive mistake could set the tone for the entire afternoon.
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BETTING CARD — WEEK 13
⭐ LOCK OF THE WEEK
Patrick Mahomes OVER 266.5 Passing Yards (-115)
352 yards last week
267+ yards in 6 of last 8 games
Dallas invites short/intermediate passing — KC thrives there
If this becomes a shootout (and we expect it will), Mahomes clears this.
Kareem Hunt OVER 33.5 Rushing Yards
Averages 41.5 YPG on the season
Hit in 6 of 9 games
Volume should be stable with Pacheco still sidelined
Xavier Worthy OVER 3.5 Receptions
Has hit in 12 of his last 17 games
Cowboys’ zone scheme leaves open pockets underneath
Mahomes has looked to him early in every game since Week 4
Javonte Williams — Longest Reception UNDER 7.5 yards
Hit in 8 of last 9
Cowboys rarely scheme RBs downfield
Chiefs match up perfectly against RB receiving game
Dak Prescott Under 254.5 passing yards
In 11 games this season, Dak has gone UNDER his total passing yards in 7 of 11 of them.
Our offense normally owns the TOP battle, which gives the opposing QB less chances to gain yards.
🍁 Happy Thanksgiving — and a Special Preview Just for You!
Wishing all of you a wonderful Thanksgiving filled with family, friends, food, and (of course) football!
This full pregame breakdown is normally exclusive to Daily Chief Members, but I’m sharing it today as a holiday preview so you can see exactly what our members get every single week.
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It’s the best way to stay plugged in all season long. ❤️💛